Inflation, interest rates, productivity and policy all front of mind for economists and business leaders in a slowing economy

Economics, real estate and investment experts have identified productivity challenges, inflation uncertainty and regulatory pressures among the risks for Australia's economy as it faces headwinds from a number of structural forces.

Speaking to more than 300 of Lander & Rogers' people, clients and colleagues at the firm's 2026 Economic Briefing in Sydney, NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld drew on recent economic data and business sentiment surveys to present a snapshot of Australia's current economic outlook. Ms Auld noted:

• a slowdown in Australia's economy in the first half of 2026, with GDP growth of 0.3% in the March quarter
• evidence of a cooling labour market, with the unemployment rate forecast to rise to the high four per cent range over the next 12 months
• a peak in inflation, with a possible gradual return to the RBA's 2-3% target band in the second half of 2027 contingent on oil prices stabilising amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East
• a continued slowdown in house price growth following post-Federal Budget taxation reforms, with a sharp decline in investor lending and potential broader multiplier effects on the domestic economy
• uncertainty around the impact of AI on the labour market and productivity growth, although an analysis of routine work conducted by sector indicates approximately 15% of all jobs in Australia's workforce may be significantly exposed to AI and experience losses
• inflationary and cost of living pressures enduring in the short term, with scope for a more positive outlook heading into 2028.

Following her briefing, Ms Auld was joined by Lander & Rogers partner John Wells, Charter Hall Office CEO Carmel Hourigan, and MA Financial Vice Chairman and Sydney Swans Chairman Andrew Pridham to discuss what Australia's economic outlook means for business and investment.

Panellists noted that the convergence of technology and geopolitics was creating vast structural shifts, with a transition from globalisation to protectionism and resulting impacts on supply chains, capital and labour creating a fractured investment environment.

Panellists identified that the ongoing impact of interest rates and inflation, low productivity growth, and policy and regulation challenges were keeping them vigilant ─ while also noting that opportunities remained across traditional and alternative asset classes, and that adaptability and resilience were key to weathering the current economic climate.

The Lander & Rogers Economic Briefing is an annual event for Australia's legal and business community. We bring together senior economists and leading business experts to share their perspectives on the short- to medium-term economic and business outlook, and the risks and opportunities in today's economic climate. For more information and to attend future briefings in Melbourne and Sydney, contact events@landers.com.au